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Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur

● quote 883 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $442.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $270.8KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur

Indicative prices · 883 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

2.0¢
Tomas Machac
99.9¢
Alex de Minaur
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:211 trades$311.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 895 min agoofficial metadata 883 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $15.0K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$82.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlex de Minaur$24.7K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$311.1K

10 verified profitable wallets: Alex de Minaur · $15.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 883 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 895 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 883 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Machac and Alex de Minaur in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Tomas Machac. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 94.0¢15h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Alex de Minaur@ 91.0¢16h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Alex de Minaur UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $13.5K → $23.6K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tomas Machac; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTomas Machac · $0
6hTomas Machac · $0
24hTomas Machac · $23.9K

Tomas Machac price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tomas Machac price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Tomas Machac probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h32.73¢▼ below by 30.7pp
VWAP 7d32.72¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Tomas Machac price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$2.7K
90¢
$15.5K
85¢
$16.6K
80¢
$3.3K
75¢
$562
70¢
$1.7K
65¢
$10.7K
60¢
$13.2K
55¢
$36.9K
50¢
$10.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$16.2K
30¢
$17.8K
25¢
$3.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$25.7K
10¢
$41.6K
5¢
$36.2K
0¢
← now
$60.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$24.7K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLAlex de Minaur$11.7K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$17.6K@ 87.82¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLAlex de Minaur$19.3K@ 88.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$12.4K@ 83.0¢0x09be…9c32🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$12.4K@ 83.0¢0x09be…9c32🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$10.0K@ 44.24¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$10.0K@ 45.58¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x09be…9c32Alex de Minaur$26.5K
BUY VWAP 83.52¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesTomas Machac$21.3K
BUY VWAP 83.40¢·16 fills
robustmstAlex de Minaur$19.0K
BUY VWAP 44.33¢·3 fills
tennischampAlex de Minaur$17.6K
BUY VWAP 87.82¢·1 fill
LuzzzerAlex de Minaur$10.0K
BUY VWAP 45.58¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.