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Guayaquil: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna

● quote 445 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $149.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $408.9KEvent: Guayaquil: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Indicative prices · 445 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Nick Hardt
0.1¢
Juan Manuel La Serna
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:118 trades$113.7K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 475 min agoofficial metadata 446 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nick Hardt · $4.4K net·11 wallets·$61.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Manuel La Serna$10.9K@ 68¢·TennisAce1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$113.7K

11 verified profitable wallets: Nick Hardt · $4.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 445 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 475 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 446 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-02 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nick Hardt and Juan Manuel La Serna in the Guayaquil, originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nick Hardt' if Nick Hardt advances against Juan Manuel La Serna. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Nick Hardt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Nick Hardt8h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Nick Hardt@ 42.0¢9h ago
15m INVALIDATED -21.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Nick Hardt UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $12.9K → $2.9K · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nick Hardt; negative values favor Juan Manuel La Serna. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNick Hardt · $0
6hNick Hardt · $0
24hJuan Manuel La Serna · $4.2K

Nick Hardt price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nick Hardt price. Juan Manuel La Serna fills are converted to the complementary Nick Hardt probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h48.06¢▲ above by 51.8pp
VWAP 7d48.06¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nick Hardt price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.2K
90¢
$324
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$20.2K
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.3K
65¢
$2.0K
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.3K
50¢
$3.4K
45¢
$8.8K
40¢
$27.3K
35¢
$10.1K
30¢
$15.3K
25¢
$17.3K
20¢
$2.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJuan Manuel La Serna$10.9K@ 67.64¢
TennisAce10xa3e1…2b3b
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Nick Hardt$22.1K
BUY VWAP 42.33¢·7 fills
TennisAce1Juan Manuel La Serna$10.9K
BUY VWAP 67.64¢·1 fill
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseJuan Manuel La Serna$10.8K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.