PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse

● quote 40 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $915.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $587.1KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse

Indicative prices · 40 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Adrian Mannarino
1.0¢
Ignacio Buse
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:209 trades$239.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 69 min agoofficial metadata 41 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Adrian Mannarino · $13.4K net·9 wallets·$27.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAdrian Mannarino$22.3K@ 70¢·0x8699…7bb2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$14.5K
tracked
$239.0K

9 verified profitable wallets: Adrian Mannarino · $13.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 40 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 69 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Ignacio Buse in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Ignacio Buse. This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Adrian Mannarino2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Adrian Mannarino@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -24.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Ignacio Buse DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $10.8K → $798 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Adrian Mannarino; negative values favor Ignacio Buse. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAdrian Mannarino · $0
6hAdrian Mannarino · $14.5K
24hAdrian Mannarino · $16.5K

Adrian Mannarino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Adrian Mannarino price. Ignacio Buse fills are converted to the complementary Adrian Mannarino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h63.66¢▲ above by 36.2pp
VWAP 7d63.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Adrian Mannarino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$17.1K
90¢
$19.4K
85¢
$14.3K
80¢
$10.4K
75¢
$9.0K
70¢
$2.8K
65¢
$31.2K
60¢
$37.5K
55¢
$8.9K
50¢
$15.1K
45¢
$35.9K
40¢
$7.0K
35¢
$15.3K
30¢
$6.4K
25¢
$3.8K
20¢
$5.3K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAdrian Mannarino$18.2K@ 45.19¢0x8699…7bb2🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAdrian Mannarino$22.3K@ 69.9¢0x8699…7bb2🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Adrian Mannarino (-1.5) vs Ignacio Buse (+1.5)
—$1.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
0.05¢$2.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs
0.05¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B
0.05¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B
0.05¢$979.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova
—$913.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs
—$689.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
3.15¢$566.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x8699…7bb2Adrian Mannarino$27.5K
BUY VWAP 68.92¢·2 fills
robustmstIgnacio Buse$19.3K
BUY VWAP 49.04¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesAdrian Mannarino$18.2K
BUY VWAP 72.91¢·20 fills
redvinnyAdrian Mannarino$12.3K
BUY VWAP 77.42¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.