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Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev

● quote 47 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $134.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $510.9KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev

Indicative prices · 47 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Andrey Rublev
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$148.2K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 48 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tommy Paul · $12.6K net·9 wallets·$38.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLTommy Paul$9.8K@ 100¢·0xf816…0433

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Andrey Rublev pressure: $15.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.2K
6h
+$18.8K
tracked
$148.2K

9 verified profitable wallets: Tommy Paul · $12.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 47 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 48 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Andrey Rublev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Andrey Rublev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $4.2K gross
0xe711…6b842 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Tommy Paul UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $8.2K → $75.6K · 9s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Andrey Rublev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrey Rublev · $15.2K
6hTommy Paul · $18.8K
24hTommy Paul · $9.9K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Andrey Rublev fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h75.09¢▲ above by 24.8pp
VWAP 7d75.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$50.7K
90¢
$11.5K
85¢
$25
80¢
$5
75¢
$14.0K
70¢
$8.7K
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$5.1K
55¢
$8.3K
50¢
$40.3K
45¢
$3.5K
40¢
$5.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Paul vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5
52.5¢$949priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Andrey Rublev (+1.5)
—$538priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tommy Paul vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$111priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev
—$32priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Andrey Rublev (+1.5)
—$23priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5
—$19priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Rublev: Match O/U 23.5
—$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Rublev: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesTommy Paul$16.4K
BUY VWAP 71.76¢·12 fills
quavooAndrey Rublev$11.4K
BUY VWAP 45.73¢·15 fills
dmoralezTommy Paul$10.6K
BUY VWAP 86.48¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.