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Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

● quote 1138 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $586.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $425.1KEvent: Almaty Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Indicative prices · 1138 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Nikoloz Basilashvili
0.05¢
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:162 trades$159.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1153 min agoofficial metadata 1138 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Stefanos Tsitsipas · $36.2K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$43.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNikoloz Basilashvili$20.0K@ 97¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$159.0K

14 verified profitable wallets: Stefanos Tsitsipas · $36.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1138 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1153 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1138 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wtylyjwyz2 linked markets · $197 gross
ferdinand22 linked markets · $120 gross
0xdbdd…a5de2 linked markets · $22 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Stefanos Tsitsipas DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $287 → $1.4K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nikoloz Basilashvili; negative values favor Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNikoloz Basilashvili · $0
6hNikoloz Basilashvili · $0
24hStefanos Tsitsipas · $26.0K

Nikoloz Basilashvili price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nikoloz Basilashvili price. Stefanos Tsitsipas fills are converted to the complementary Nikoloz Basilashvili probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h64.09¢▲ above by 35.9pp
VWAP 7d64.08¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nikoloz Basilashvili price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$35.0K
90¢
$2.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$5.7K
75¢
$1.0K
70¢
$12
65¢
$4.7K
60¢
$49.7K
55¢
$8.0K
50¢
$14.4K
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$13.3K
35¢
$4.3K
30¢
$14.1K
25¢
$3.6K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNikoloz Basilashvili$20.0K@ 97.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYStefanos Tsitsipas$16.8K@ 39.59¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 19 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KkunnStefanos Tsitsipas$28.1K
BUY VWAP 39.33¢·4 fills
999585Nikoloz Basilashvili$20.0K
BUY VWAP 97.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNikoloz Basilashvili$17.8K
BUY VWAP 61.76¢·12 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.