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Japan Women's Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Katerina Siniakova

● quote 38 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $186.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $592.4KEvent: Japan Women's Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Katerina Siniakova

Indicative prices · 38 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.6¢
Ashlyn Krueger
99.9¢
Katerina Siniakova
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets19Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:233 trades$288.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 41 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Katerina Siniakova · $20.0K net·18 wallets(3🐋)·$104.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKaterina Siniakova$26.3K@ 67¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Ashlyn Krueger pressure: $11.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$11.6K
6h
−$40.4K
tracked
$288.4K

18 verified profitable wallets: Katerina Siniakova · $20.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +14.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 38 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 41 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ashlyn Krueger or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ashlyn Krueger and Katerina Siniakova in the Japan Women's Open, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ashlyn Krueger' if Ashlyn Krueger advances against Katerina Siniakova. This market will resolve to 'Katerina Siniakova' if Katerina Siniakova advances against Ashlyn Krueger. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Katerina Siniakova1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Katerina Siniakova@ 86.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.7pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Ashlyn Krueger@ 46.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
Latest book event: Ashlyn Krueger DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $10.4K → $3.2K · 27s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ashlyn Krueger; negative values favor Katerina Siniakova. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAshlyn Krueger · $11.6K
6hKaterina Siniakova · $40.4K
24hKaterina Siniakova · $38.9K

Ashlyn Krueger price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ashlyn Krueger price. Katerina Siniakova fills are converted to the complementary Ashlyn Krueger probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.6¢
VWAP 24h28.39¢▼ below by 27.8pp
VWAP 7d28.39¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ashlyn Krueger price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$54.5K
40¢
$36.8K
35¢
$38.3K
30¢
$33.9K
25¢
$1.0K
20¢
$6.9K
15¢
$66.9K
10¢
$256
5¢
$15.2K
0¢
← now
$34.7K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKaterina Siniakova$13.4K@ 82.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYKaterina Siniakova$26.3K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger$21.1K@ 36.51¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger$10.0K@ 46.97¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger$10.0K@ 46.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger$10.0K@ 45.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAshlyn Krueger$14.9K@ 44.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Katerina Siniakova (-1.5) vs Ashlyn Krueger (+1.5)
—$438priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ashlyn Krueger vs Katerina Siniakova
—$358priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ashlyn Krueger vs. Katerina Siniakova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$196priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Krueger vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5
—$21priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Katerina Siniakova (-0.5) vs Ashlyn Krueger (+0.5)
—$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Krueger vs. Siniakova: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Krueger vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 22.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Krueger vs. Siniakova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesKaterina Siniakova$49.8K
BUY VWAP 79.94¢·23 fills
robustmstAshlyn Krueger$48.6K
BUY VWAP 46.34¢·6 fills
KkunnAshlyn Krueger$36.0K
BUY VWAP 39.28¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Katerina Siniakova$26.3K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Katerina Siniakova$13.4K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardKaterina Siniakova$10.9K
BUY VWAP 85.20¢·4 fills
22QAQKaterina Siniakova$10.7K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·4 fills
isco23Katerina Siniakova$10.4K
BUY VWAP 57.44¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.