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Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli

Sports→Settlement: CaneloLiquidity: $159.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $143.4KEvent: Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli
100.0¢
Canelo payout
0.0¢
Mbilli payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Canelo · $20.7K net·7 wallets·$21.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCanelo$34.5K@ 72¢·surfandturf

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Canelo. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Canelo" if Canelo Álvarez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Mbilli in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Mbilli" if Christian Mbilli is officially declared the winner.

•If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "50-50."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Canelo" if Canelo Álvarez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Christian Mbilli in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Mbilli" if Christian Mbilli is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "50-50." This market will resolve based on the official result announced at the conclusion of the event. Any later change to that result, including an overturn to a No Contest, will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Boxing Council (WBC); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Canelo@ 99.6¢3d ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h STALLED -0.3pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Canelo@ 74.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Canelo; negative values favor Mbilli. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCanelo · $61
6hCanelo · $53.1K
24hCanelo · $60.4K

Canelo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Canelo price. Mbilli fills are converted to the complementary Canelo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h79.29¢▲ above by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d79.29¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Canelo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.1K
90¢
$10.9K
85¢
$105
80¢
$0
75¢
$10
70¢
$50.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCanelo$34.5K@ 72.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

surfandturfCanelo$41.5K
BUY VWAP 71.88¢·3 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseCanelo$18.3K
BUY VWAP 95.75¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.