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Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $242.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $256.6KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

19.5¢
Alex Michelsen
80.5¢
Jiri Lehecka
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:49 trades$73.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex Michelsen · $2.6K net·4 wallets·$3.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$11.7K@ 56¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Alex Michelsen SETUP
What the tape says

Alex Michelsen pressure: $15.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$15.4K
6h
+$27.8K
tracked
$73.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: Alex Michelsen · $2.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 68

Since latest large flow: -32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Alex Michelsen or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Jiri Lehecka in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Jiri Lehecka. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Michelsen59m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 52.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -36.0pp
Latest book event: Jiri Lehecka DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $79.5K → $14.8K · 101s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Jiri Lehecka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $15.4K
6hAlex Michelsen · $27.8K
24hAlex Michelsen · $27.8K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Jiri Lehecka fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h46.53¢▼ below by 27.0pp
VWAP 7d46.53¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$4.8K
55¢
$19.8K
50¢
$2.7K
45¢
$26.4K
40¢
$6.8K
35¢
$2.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.3K
20¢
$6.8K
15¢
← now
$2.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$11.7K@ 56.39¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka
0.05¢$5.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Jiri Lehecka (-1.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+1.5)
61.5¢$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michelsen vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 23.5
59.5¢$584priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michelsen vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5
67.5¢$346priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alex Michelsen vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5
38.5¢$159priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Michelsen vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$38priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Alex Michelsen (-1.5) vs Jiri Lehecka (+1.5)
0.45¢$25priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Jiri Lehecka (-2.5) vs Alex Michelsen (+2.5)
48.5¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooAlex Michelsen$17.5K
BUY VWAP 57.36¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.