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Florence: Francesco Forti vs Oriol Roca Batalla

● quote 1252 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $257.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $166.8KEvent: Florence: Francesco Forti vs Oriol Roca Batalla

Indicative prices · 1252 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

3.0¢
Francesco Forti
99.9¢
Oriol Roca Batalla
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$5.7K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1281 min agoofficial metadata 1253 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Francesco Forti · $1.9K net·8 wallets·$4.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrancesco Forti$7.5K@ 21¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$5.7K

8 verified profitable wallets: Francesco Forti · $1.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1252 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1281 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1253 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francesco Forti and Oriol Roca Batalla in the Florence, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Forti' if Francesco Forti advances against Oriol Roca Batalla. This market will resolve to 'Oriol Roca Batalla' if Oriol Roca Batalla advances against Francesco Forti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
horrocrux2 linked markets · $8.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Francesco Forti DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $1.8K → $431 · 76s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francesco Forti; negative values favor Oriol Roca Batalla. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancesco Forti · $0
6hFrancesco Forti · $0
24hFrancesco Forti · $488

Francesco Forti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francesco Forti price. Oriol Roca Batalla fills are converted to the complementary Francesco Forti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h24.08¢▼ below by 21.1pp
VWAP 7d24.13¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francesco Forti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$375
45¢
$0
40¢
$3.4K
35¢
$652
30¢
$2.1K
25¢
$1.9K
20¢
$22.6K
15¢
$6.6K
10¢
$233
5¢
$94
0¢
← now
$1.0K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstFrancesco Forti$13.5K
BUY VWAP 21.89¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.