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Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs PRIVATE (+1.5)

● quote 13 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $66.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs
43.0¢
fnatic
99.9¢
PRIVATE
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$17.2K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 22 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:fnatic · $187 net·5 wallets·$282 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPRIVATE$7.5K@ 59¢·vibing123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

fnatic pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
+$4.8K
tracked
$17.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: fnatic · $187 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 13 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from fnatic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic wins 2 or more maps than PRIVATE in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "PRIVATE".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match between PRIVATE and fnatic in the 1win Private Club Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic wins 2 or more maps than PRIVATE in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "PRIVATE". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Satanishippie3 linked markets · $31.9K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $25.0K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $19.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: PRIVATE UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $44 → $175 · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor fnatic; negative values favor PRIVATE. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hfnatic · $1.2K
6hfnatic · $4.8K
24hPRIVATE · $4.1K

fnatic price VWAP

Volume-weighted fnatic price. PRIVATE fills are converted to the complementary fnatic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.0¢
VWAP 24h38.4¢▲ above by 4.6pp
VWAP 7d38.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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fnatic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$81
45¢
$2.0K
40¢
← now
$13.3K
35¢
$703
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$8
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$1.2K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.