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Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner

● quote 12 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $140.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $276.3KEvent: Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club Playoffs
99.9¢
PRIVATE
0.2¢
fnatic
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection44Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:150 trades$78.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:PRIVATE · $192 net·11 wallets·$526 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLPRIVATE$17.9K@ 100¢·Satanishippie

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

fnatic pressure: $34.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$34.5K
6h
−$24.1K
tracked
$78.6K

11 verified profitable wallets: PRIVATE · $192 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 12 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from fnatic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "PRIVATE" if PRIVATE win Map 2 against fnatic.

•This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win Map 2 against PRIVATE.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match between PRIVATE and fnatic in the 1win Private Club Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "PRIVATE" if PRIVATE win Map 2 against fnatic. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win Map 2 against PRIVATE. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Satanishippie3 linked markets · $31.9K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $25.0K gross
redvinny2 linked markets · $19.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: fnatic DOWN 5.6pp · near-book depth $305 → $63 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor PRIVATE; negative values favor fnatic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hfnatic · $34.5K
6hfnatic · $24.1K
24hfnatic · $24.1K

PRIVATE price VWAP

Volume-weighted PRIVATE price. fnatic fills are converted to the complementary PRIVATE probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h61.1¢▲ above by 38.8pp
VWAP 7d61.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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PRIVATE price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$31.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.2K
50¢
$396
45¢
$12.0K
40¢
$7.5K
35¢
$9.5K
30¢
$1.8K
25¢
$583
20¢
$263
15¢
$5.0K
10¢
$4.6K
5¢
$2.8K
0¢
$315

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLPRIVATE$17.9K@ 99.9¢
Satanishippie0x89eb…cff9
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

redvinnyfnatic$10.1K
BUY VWAP 78.2¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.