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Lyon Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Martin Landaluce

● quote 13s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $217.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $690.6KEvent: Lyon Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Martin Landaluce
99.5¢
Stan Wawrinka
0.5¢
Martin Landaluce
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:242 trades$258.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Martin Landaluce · $20.2K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$58.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMartin Landaluce$37.6K@ 64¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Stan Wawrinka pressure: $4.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.5K
6h
−$89.5K
tracked
$258.8K

10 verified profitable wallets: Martin Landaluce · $20.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -42.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Stan Wawrinka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Martin Landaluce in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Martin Landaluce. This market will resolve to 'Martin Landaluce' if Martin Landaluce advances against Stan Wawrinka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave233 linked markets · $79 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Martin Landaluce33m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Landaluce@ 43.0¢36m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Landaluce@ 68.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Martin Landaluce@ 42.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +25.0pp
Latest book event: Martin Landaluce DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $23.1K → $10 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Stan Wawrinka; negative values favor Martin Landaluce. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hStan Wawrinka · $4.5K
6hMartin Landaluce · $89.5K
24hMartin Landaluce · $95.0K

Stan Wawrinka price VWAP

Volume-weighted Stan Wawrinka price. Martin Landaluce fills are converted to the complementary Stan Wawrinka probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.5¢
VWAP 24h48.2¢▲ above by 51.3pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Stan Wawrinka price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.7K
80¢
$1.2K
75¢
$10.3K
70¢
$6.7K
65¢
$39.4K
60¢
$17.2K
55¢
$14.4K
50¢
$4.1K
45¢
$9.0K
40¢
$40.9K
35¢
$105.3K
30¢
$464
25¢
$4.0K
20¢
$6.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMartin Landaluce$11.4K@ 57.0¢
jankysankyclow0xc29a…969d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Landaluce$11.8K@ 56.0¢
jankysankyclow0xc29a…969d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Landaluce$37.6K@ 63.7¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Landaluce$19.1K@ 63.6¢
jankysankyclow0xc29a…969d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMartin Landaluce$18.0K@ 33.7¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

jankysankyclowMartin Landaluce$42.3K
BUY VWAP 59.5¢·3 fills
WoaifacaiMartin Landaluce$41.7K
BUY VWAP 63.1¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cMartin Landaluce$28.5K
BUY VWAP 35.1¢·4 fills
UpTheBluesStan Wawrinka$13.4K
BUY VWAP 57.3¢·10 fills
0x076d…8d4cStan Wawrinka$13.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.