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Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Cameron Norrie

● quote 133 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $1.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $394.5KEvent: Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Cameron Norrie
99.9¢
Benjamin Bonzi
1.0¢
Cameron Norrie
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets69Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:152 trades$137.0K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 153 min agoofficial metadata 131 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Benjamin Bonzi · $7.5K net·15 wallets·$10.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBenjamin Bonzi$7.8K@ 94¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.7K
tracked
$137.0K

15 verified profitable wallets: Benjamin Bonzi · $7.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 133 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 153 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 131 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-26 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Benjamin Bonzi and Cameron Norrie in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Bonzi' if Benjamin Bonzi advances against Cameron Norrie. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Benjamin Bonzi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $9.0K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $74 gross
Donkoo3 linked markets · $55 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Benjamin Bonzi3h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Benjamin Bonzi@ 98.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Benjamin Bonzi@ 85.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Benjamin Bonzi UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $25.8K → $12.2K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Benjamin Bonzi; negative values favor Cameron Norrie. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBenjamin Bonzi · $0
6hCameron Norrie · $1.7K
24hCameron Norrie · $1.0K

Benjamin Bonzi price VWAP

Volume-weighted Benjamin Bonzi price. Cameron Norrie fills are converted to the complementary Benjamin Bonzi probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h79.4¢▲ above by 20.5pp
VWAP 7d79.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Benjamin Bonzi price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.2K
90¢
$46.2K
85¢
$15.9K
80¢
$12.5K
75¢
$12.4K
70¢
$4.0K
65¢
$1.9K
60¢
$13.4K
55¢
$2.1K
50¢
$7.7K
45¢
$11.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$95
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

redvinnyBenjamin Bonzi$27.6K
BUY VWAP 81.8¢·13 fills
UpTheBluesCameron Norrie$16.4K
BUY VWAP 31.6¢·15 fills
UpTheBluesBenjamin Bonzi$15.0K
BUY VWAP 93.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.