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UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)

Sports→Combat SportsSettlement: Tom NolanLiquidity: $377.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $777.6KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)
0.0¢
Renato Moicano payout
100.0¢
Tom Nolan payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tom Nolan · $3.9K net·18 wallets·$20.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTom Nolan$54.3K@ 45¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Tom Nolan. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Tom Nolan" if Tom Nolan is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Tom Nolan" if Tom Nolan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tom Nolan3d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Tom Nolan@ 47.0¢3d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Renato Moicano; negative values favor Tom Nolan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTom Nolan · $173.6K
6hTom Nolan · $192.3K
24hTom Nolan · $193.5K

Renato Moicano price VWAP

Volume-weighted Renato Moicano price. Tom Nolan fills are converted to the complementary Renato Moicano probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h51.85¢▼ below by 51.8pp
VWAP 7d51.87¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Renato Moicano price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$112
75¢
$8.5K
70¢
$102
65¢
$7.6K
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$185.1K
50¢
$58.7K
45¢
$410
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$7.8K
20¢
$1.7K
15¢
$1.5K
10¢
$3.6K
5¢
$1.6K
0¢
← now
$10.4K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTom Nolan$48.1K@ 45.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTom Nolan$32.8K@ 45.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTom Nolan$54.3K@ 45.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—3 days ago
BUYTom Nolan$13.8K@ 46.0¢
Raisuu0xc4a6…4e4e
🐋—3 days ago
BUYRenato Moicano$10.5K@ 54.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketTom Nolan$165.4K
BUY VWAP 45.00¢·7 fills
surfandturfRenato Moicano$18.6K
BUY VWAP 54.64¢·4 fills
RaisuuTom Nolan$13.8K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.