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LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $1.4MOfficial 24h Vol: $2.1MEvent: LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
100.0¢
FURIA Esports
0.1¢
Cloud9
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 27 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:361 trades$819.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA Esports · $6.6K net·27 wallets(1🐋)·$105.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA Esports$131.4K@ 47¢·Diabolical-Prize

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cloud9 pressure: $86.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$86.8K
6h
+$196.5K
tracked
$819.3K

27 verified profitable wallets: FURIA Esports · $6.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: -30.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cloud9 or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:50 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win Game 4 against Cloud9.

•This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win Game 4 against FURIA Esports.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Semifinal match between FURIA Esports and Cloud9 in the Worlds Play-In, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win Game 4 against Cloud9. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win Game 4 against FURIA Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize5 linked markets · $911.7K gross
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $830.9K gross
minji5 linked markets · $89.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Cloud9@ 31.0¢50m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Cloud9@ 31.0¢50m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY FURIA Esports53m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY FURIA Esports53m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: FURIA Esports DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $826 → $447 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA Esports; negative values favor Cloud9. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCloud9 · $86.8K
6hFURIA Esports · $196.5K
24hFURIA Esports · $196.5K

FURIA Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA Esports price. Cloud9 fills are converted to the complementary FURIA Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h49.7¢▲ above by 50.2pp
VWAP 7d49.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

FURIA Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$67.0K
90¢
$17.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$2.1K
65¢
$7.5K
60¢
$18.7K
55¢
$10.3K
50¢
$38.9K
45¢
$437.2K
40¢
$105.2K
35¢
$18.5K
30¢
$16.6K
25¢
$50.9K
20¢
$18.4K
15¢
$9.8K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFURIA Esports$19.7K@ 98.8¢
5e46h0xd487…053e
🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYFURIA Esports$14.1K@ 94.0¢0xb70c…34ca🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCloud9$43.7K@ 72.6¢
blgmsiwin0x6100…ed95
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$19.8K@ 43.5¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCloud9$13.2K@ 55.0¢
norrisfan0xe72b…b0a0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$56.4K@ 47.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$22.9K@ 45.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCloud9$18.6K@ 55.0¢
Netrol0x23c8…f293
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$46.9K@ 46.9¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$131.4K@ 46.9¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$23.0K@ 46.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$29.9K@ 46.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$18.0K@ 45.0¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA Esports$31.4K@ 44.8¢
Diabolical-Prize0x7c37…6aeb
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCloud9$10.8K@ 60.0¢0xf201…527e🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
100.0¢$3.8Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner
100.0¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)
0.1¢$927.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)
0.1¢$210.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
100.0¢$47.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
0.1¢$19.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
0.0¢$9.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Diabolical-PrizeFURIA Esports$358.2K
BUY VWAP 46.3¢·9 fills
blgmsiwinCloud9$58.0K
BUY VWAP 65.9¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563FURIA Esports$22.9K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
NetrolCloud9$21.4K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·2 fills
0xb70c…34caFURIA Esports$20.0K
BUY VWAP 94.7¢·2 fills
5e46hFURIA Esports$19.7K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·1 fill
0xf201…527eCloud9$17.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·2 fills
NeverLoseBetCloud9$15.7K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·3 fills
xytestCloud9$15.4K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·7 fills
minjiCloud9$14.1K
BUY VWAP 49.2¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.