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Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $32.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.9KEvent: LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
80.0¢
Cloud9
20.0¢
FURIA Esports
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly31Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution51Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$55.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA Esports · $814 net·3 wallets·$828 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCloud9$25.0K@ 67¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$317
6h
+$20.3K
tracked
$55.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: FURIA Esports · $814 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 35 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 13.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-17 02:50 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 wins 2 or more games than FURIA Esports in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FURIA Esports".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Semifinal match between FURIA Esports and Cloud9 in the Worlds Play-In, initially scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 wins 2 or more games than FURIA Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FURIA Esports". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 16, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $830.9K gross
Diabolical-Prize4 linked markets · $385.2K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $61.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cloud9@ 68.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Cloud9 DOWN 17.0pp · near-book depth $163 → $16 · 54s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cloud9; negative values favor FURIA Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCloud9 · $317
6hCloud9 · $20.3K
24hCloud9 · $25.9K

Cloud9 price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cloud9 price. FURIA Esports fills are converted to the complementary Cloud9 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.0¢
VWAP 24h67.5¢▲ above by 12.5pp
VWAP 7d67.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cloud9 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$56
75¢
$4
70¢
$3.9K
65¢
$51.4K
60¢
$394
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCloud9$25.0K@ 67.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In
11.0¢$2.8Mpriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)
42.0¢$886.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$832.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner
47.0¢$449.9Kpriority78Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 3.5
58.5¢$35.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 4.5
21.5¢$10.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner
28.5¢$9.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
0.0¢$9.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Cloud9$25.0K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.