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Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Tommy Paul (+1.5)

Sports→TennisSettlement: Tommy PaulLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $18.9KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
0.0¢
Daniil Medvedev payout
100.0¢
Tommy Paul payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:10 trades$1.9K trackedsource coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 30 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$1.4K@ 44¢·0x4c07…6200

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Tommy Paul. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Tommy Paul, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tommy Paul."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins by 2 or more sets than Tommy Paul, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Tommy Paul." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Daniil Medvedev can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 30m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 30m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $13.3K gross
0x7be1…200e2 linked markets · $160 gross
0x84d6…c2b43 linked markets · $36 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Tommy Paul DOWN 6.3pp · near-book depth $107 → $36 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTommy Paul · $46
6hDaniil Medvedev · $1.3K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $1.6K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h42.4¢▼ below by 42.4pp
VWAP 7d42.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.8K
35¢
$11
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$6
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$50

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.