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Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) vs Tommy Paul (+2.5)

● quote 49s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $10.4KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Daniil Medvedev
100.0¢
Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection36Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$3.2K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$1.9K@ 55¢·JAMJAMJAM4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
+$2.9K
tracked
$3.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Daniil Medvedev · $1.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 2.5 or more total games than Tommy Paul in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Daniil Medvedev" if Daniil Medvedev wins 2.5 or more total games than Tommy Paul in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Daniil Medvedev could no longer have finished 2.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Tommy Paul". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $13.3K gross
0x7be1…200e2 linked markets · $160 gross
0x84d6…c2b43 linked markets · $36 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Daniil Medvedev DOWN 16.5pp · near-book depth $9 → $7 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $1.1K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $2.9K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $2.9K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h35.7¢▼ below by 35.6pp
VWAP 7d35.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$124
55¢
$1.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1
25¢
$0
20¢
$2
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.1K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.