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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $202.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $867.5KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
88.5¢
Daniil Medvedev
11.5¢
Tommy Paul
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:289 trades$463.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $78.4K net·19 wallets(1🐋)·$119.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$35.8K@ 65¢·juice-fruit

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $103.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$103.1K
6h
+$335.7K
tracked
$463.3K

19 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $78.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 65

Since latest liquidity absorption: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $13.3K gross
0x7be1…200e2 linked markets · $160 gross
0x84d6…c2b43 linked markets · $36 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Daniil Medvedev1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Daniil Medvedev1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 72.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Tommy Paul DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $23.2K → $9.4K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $103.1K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $335.7K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $343.7K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current88.5¢
VWAP 24h73.8¢▲ above by 14.7pp
VWAP 7d73.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$61.1K
80¢
$110.4K
75¢
$12.9K
70¢
$2.0K
65¢
$211.6K
60¢
$59.4K
55¢
$6.0K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.7K@ 84.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—8 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$31.1K@ 88.9¢
0000a0xee15…112c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.0K@ 88.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$16.4K@ 68.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$35.8K@ 64.8¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$27.4K@ 68.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$21.6K@ 69.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$22.3K@ 67.5¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$19.1K@ 68.0¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$23.8K@ 69.0¢
mschaib0xf884…f5b2
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$13.0K@ 68.0¢
kahe0x88d1…18da
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Tommy Paul (+1.5)
0.7¢$17.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) vs Tommy Paul (+2.5)
4.0¢$10.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul
0.0¢$3.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢$3.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5
0.0¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢$753priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5
0.0¢$30priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Medvedev vs. Paul: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

juice-fruitDaniil Medvedev$149.7K
BUY VWAP 67.3¢·8 fills
FlaznorpDaniil Medvedev$39.3K
BUY VWAP 84.2¢·10 fills
UpTheBluesDaniil Medvedev$33.2K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·13 fills
0000aDaniil Medvedev$31.1K
BUY VWAP 88.9¢·1 fill
mschaibDaniil Medvedev$23.8K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
coinlaundryDaniil Medvedev$15.1K
BUY VWAP 88.3¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardDaniil Medvedev$13.3K
BUY VWAP 83.7¢·3 fills
kaheDaniil Medvedev$13.0K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.