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UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)

Sports→Combat SportsSettlement: Aaron PicoLiquidity: $272.1KOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
100.0¢
Aaron Pico payout
0.0¢
Losene Keita payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAaron Pico$18.1K@ 100¢·errormargin3

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Aaron Pico. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-25 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 10d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 10d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Losene Keita@ 43.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Losene Keita@ 45.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Losene Keita@ 45.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aaron Pico; negative values favor Losene Keita. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLosene Keita · $18.6K
6hLosene Keita · $38.2K
24hLosene Keita · $22.0K

Aaron Pico price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aaron Pico price. Losene Keita fills are converted to the complementary Aaron Pico probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h69.9¢▲ above by 30.1pp
VWAP 7d69.17¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aaron Pico price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$47.1K
90¢
$11.8K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$2.8K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$133.6K
50¢
$5.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAaron Pico$18.1K@ 99.9¢
errormargin30x5a56…10f5
🐋—10 days ago
BUYAaron Pico$10.5K@ 94.68¢
errormargin30x5a56…10f5
🐋—10 days ago
BUYLosene Keita$10.0K@ 43.0¢
beautifulobsession0x0b0e…4826
🐋—10 days ago
BUYAaron Pico$16.3K@ 57.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—10 days ago
SELLLosene Keita$13.8K@ 44.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—10 days ago
BUYAaron Pico$14.8K@ 58.0¢
Raisuu0xc4a6…4e4e
🐋—10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.