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Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $38.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
0.1¢
Team Falcons
100.0¢
Spirit
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 23 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:360 trades$447.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Spirit · $18.0K net·23 wallets(1🐋)·$115.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$22.9K@ 54¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Spirit pressure: $63.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$63.6K
6h
−$37.1K
tracked
$447.6K

23 verified profitable wallets: Spirit · $18.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -46.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Map 2 against Spirit.

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against Team Falcons.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Team Falcons and Spirit in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Map 2 against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize2 linked markets · $553.3K gross
YEEES-but-why2 linked markets · $93.1K gross
fkgggg2mouzfuria2 linked markets · $78.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 47.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Team Falcons DOWN 4.1pp · near-book depth $155 → $42 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Falcons; negative values favor Spirit. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $63.6K
6hSpirit · $37.1K
24hSpirit · $37.1K

Team Falcons price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Falcons price. Spirit fills are converted to the complementary Team Falcons probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.1¢▼ below by 38.0pp
VWAP 7d38.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Falcons price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$4.1K
50¢
$50.2K
45¢
$208.2K
40¢
$39.2K
35¢
$26.4K
30¢
$27.9K
25¢
$1.2K
20¢
$10.1K
15¢
$14.6K
10¢
$8.3K
5¢
$15.9K
0¢
← now
$41.5K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSpirit$11.1K@ 57.6¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$10.2K@ 51.0¢
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons$10.7K@ 51.0¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons$12.8K@ 50.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$11.0K@ 51.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Falcons$10.5K@ 47.0¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSpirit$22.9K@ 54.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

YEEES-but-whyTeam Falcons$26.2K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·4 fills
Lakersfan111Spirit$22.9K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
lllllllIlllSpirit$21.3K
BUY VWAP 54.3¢·2 fills
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fSpirit$18.9K
BUY VWAP 60.8¢·12 fills
CORGI8Team Falcons$17.2K
BUY VWAP 49.7¢·2 fills
0xheavy888Spirit$17.0K
BUY VWAP 59.6¢·7 fills
xytestSpirit$13.8K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·6 fills
fkgggg2mouzfuriaSpirit$12.5K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·3 fills
0x1610…ae49Spirit$11.9K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·2 fills
Sunshine.SmileTeam Falcons$10.7K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.