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Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Esports · Dota 2Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $440.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $703.9KEvent: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
0.3¢
LGD Gaming
99.9¢
Aurora
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:153 trades$268.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora · $20.6K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$63.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora$16.4K@ 73¢·Sunshine.Smile

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

LGD Gaming pressure: $19.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$19.9K
6h
−$74.5K
tracked
$268.3K

14 verified profitable wallets: Aurora · $20.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from LGD Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 00:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Aurora.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against LGD Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 1 match between LGD Gaming and Aurora in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $42.5K gross
fantasy77883 linked markets · $38.0K gross
0xf3ce…a57a2 linked markets · $36.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora49m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora49m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora@ 75.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: LGD Gaming DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $524 → $313 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LGD Gaming; negative values favor Aurora. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLGD Gaming · $19.9K
6hAurora · $74.5K
24hAurora · $74.5K

LGD Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted LGD Gaming price. Aurora fills are converted to the complementary LGD Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.3¢
VWAP 24h22.1¢▼ below by 21.8pp
VWAP 7d22.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

LGD Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$38.4K
35¢
$27.0K
30¢
$23.9K
25¢
$84.6K
20¢
$3.8K
15¢
$2.1K
10¢
$100
5¢
$7.1K
0¢
← now
$81.4K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora$10.6K@ 99.9¢
LuckyWin0x5922…3388
🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYAurora$16.4K@ 73.0¢
Sunshine.Smile0xd3b0…329e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora$15.6K@ 72.2¢0xf3ce…a57a🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf3ce…a57aAurora$22.5K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·2 fills
Sunshine.SmileAurora$20.4K
BUY VWAP 72.8¢·2 fills
0xe16d…5e30Aurora$15.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·5 fills
GeorgeReAurora$11.6K
BUY VWAP 62.8¢·4 fills
LuckyWinAurora$10.6K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
darkmarketmakerAurora$10.2K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.