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Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $128.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $89.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
31.5¢
Spirit
68.5¢
Team Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$34.3K trackedsource coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons$6.9K@ 68¢·HBAFlover98

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Team Falcons SETUP
What the tape says

Team Falcons pressure: $7.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.0K
6h
+$1.0K
tracked
$34.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Spirit · $15.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 55

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Falcons or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Team Falcons in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Falcons".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Team Falcons and Spirit in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than Team Falcons in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Falcons". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 42m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $48.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor Team Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Falcons · $7.0K
6hSpirit · $1.0K
24hTeam Falcons · $2.8K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. Team Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h31.9¢▼ below by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d31.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$34.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cSpirit$15.8K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.