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Hangzhou Open: Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev

● quote 5 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $227.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $676.6KEvent: Hangzhou Open: Hugo Gaston vs Andrey Rublev
0.1¢
Hugo Gaston
99.9¢
Andrey Rublev
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:200 trades$189.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Andrey Rublev · $29.6K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$91.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrey Rublev$14.2K@ 98¢·Flaznorp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Andrey Rublev pressure: $37.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$37.4K
6h
−$38.4K
tracked
$189.4K

12 verified profitable wallets: Andrey Rublev · $29.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Andrey Rublev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Gaston and Andrey Rublev in the Hangzhou Open, originally scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Hugo Gaston. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Andrey Rublev UP 8.5pp · near-book depth $418 → $13.2K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hugo Gaston; negative values favor Andrey Rublev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrey Rublev · $37.4K
6hAndrey Rublev · $38.4K
24hAndrey Rublev · $47.7K

Hugo Gaston price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hugo Gaston price. Andrey Rublev fills are converted to the complementary Hugo Gaston probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h17.3¢▼ below by 17.2pp
VWAP 7d17.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hugo Gaston price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.7K
55¢
$6.3K
50¢
$6.6K
45¢
$11.2K
40¢
$13.1K
35¢
$974
30¢
$9.7K
25¢
$12.0K
20¢
$5.5K
15¢
$11.1K
10¢
$2.7K
5¢
$5.7K
0¢
← now
$100.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAndrey Rublev$10.8K@ 96.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$14.2K@ 98.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FlaznorpAndrey Rublev$40.5K
BUY VWAP 94.3¢·9 fills
hd777Andrey Rublev$15.4K
BUY VWAP 99.4¢·3 fills
dmoralezAndrey Rublev$12.3K
BUY VWAP 91.7¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesAndrey Rublev$10.2K
BUY VWAP 65.5¢·19 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.