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Spread: Bills (-7.5)

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $398.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $233.8KEvent: Chargers vs. Bills
49.5¢
Bills
50.5¢
Chargers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$113.4K tracked19% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 33 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chargers · $5.7K net·2 wallets·$12.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChargers$25.5K@ 51¢·one8tyfive

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chargers pressure: $10.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.2K
6h
−$35.3K
tracked
$113.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Chargers · $5.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 33 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chargers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Chargers and Bills, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bills" if the Bills win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chargers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chargers@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bills@ 49.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Chargers@ 54.0¢15h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bills; negative values favor Chargers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChargers · $10.2K
6hChargers · $35.3K
24hChargers · $32.1K

Bills price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bills price. Chargers fills are converted to the complementary Bills probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h48.4¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d48.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Bills price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$5
45¢
← now
$131.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYChargers$10.2K@ 51.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYChargers$25.5K@ 51.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBills$18.7K@ 49.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBills$13.7K@ 47.7¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYChargers$17.2K@ 53.0¢
mrcoolside0x4078…3922
🐋—about 16 hours ago
BUYChargers$11.1K@ 53.0¢
mrcoolside0x4078…3922
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rBills$40.7K
BUY VWAP 48.3¢·5 fills
mrcoolsideChargers$28.3K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·2 fills
one8tyfiveChargers$25.5K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
monkeymashingkeyboardChargers$10.2K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.