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Spread: Lions (-6.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $493.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $370.1KEvent: Jets vs. Lions
51.5¢
Lions
48.5¢
Jets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection45Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$178.8K tracked42% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jets · $82.4K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$82.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJets$79.9K@ 48¢·takeormake

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jets pressure: $79.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$79.9K
6h
−$105.2K
tracked
$178.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Jets · $82.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
takeormake3 linked markets · $132.8K gross
one8tyfive2 linked markets · $33.2K gross
Herdonia4 linked markets · $27.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Lions@ 52.0¢42m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jets@ 49.0¢54m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Jets@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Lions@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lions; negative values favor Jets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJets · $79.9K
6hJets · $105.2K
24hJets · $81.7K

Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lions price. Jets fills are converted to the complementary Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.8¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d51.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$179.9K
45¢
$31.5K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJets$79.9K@ 48.0¢
takeormake0xa38a…821d
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJets$24.0K@ 48.0¢
one8tyfive0xcf6c…7e66
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLions$23.7K@ 52.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYJets$12.2K@ 49.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYLions$19.5K@ 51.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYJets$31.5K@ 50.2¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

takeormakeJets$79.9K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rLions$48.6K
BUY VWAP 51.5¢·4 fills
0xb4f9…c9a7Jets$31.5K
BUY VWAP 50.2¢·1 fill
one8tyfiveJets$24.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
mooseborzoiJets$12.3K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.