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Spread: Lions (-7.5)

● quote 54s ago
Sports→Closes: 2 daysLiquidity: $189.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.8KEvent: Jets vs. Lions
42.5¢
Lions
57.5¢
Jets
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection63Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$39.3K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jets · $10.4K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$39.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJets$24.8K@ 57¢·takeormake

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Jets pressure: $24.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$24.8K
6h
−$15.9K
tracked
$39.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Jets · $10.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 37 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
takeormake3 linked markets · $132.8K gross
one8tyfive2 linked markets · $33.2K gross
Herdonia4 linked markets · $27.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jets@ 58.0¢43m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lions; negative values favor Jets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJets · $24.8K
6hJets · $15.9K
24hJets · $10.4K

Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lions price. Jets fills are converted to the complementary Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h43.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d43.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$39.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJets$24.8K@ 57.0¢
takeormake0xa38a…821d
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

takeormakeJets$24.8K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardLions$11.1K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.