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Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 19 hoursLiquidity: $577.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $131.5KEvent: Chiefs vs. Dolphins
47.5¢
Chiefs
52.5¢
Dolphins
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly96Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:25 trades$60.1K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 59 min agoofficial metadata 31s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Dolphins · $17.7K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$74.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChiefs$37.7K@ 50¢·0xb4f9…c9a7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Chiefs pressure: $3.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.5K
6h
+$12.9K
tracked
$60.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: Dolphins · $17.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
  • •Less than 19h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Chiefs or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 11 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Dolphins".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chiefs" if the Chiefs win the game by 11 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Dolphins". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $74.9K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $47.9K gross
TKD442 linked markets · $12.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Chiefs@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chiefs; negative values favor Dolphins. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hChiefs · $3.5K
6hChiefs · $12.9K
24hDolphins · $27.1K

Chiefs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chiefs price. Dolphins fills are converted to the complementary Chiefs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h48.5¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d49.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chiefs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$67.1K
45¢
← now
$60.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDolphins$10.7K@ 52.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYChiefs$37.7K@ 50.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—1 day ago
BUYDolphins$11.4K@ 50.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb4f9…c9a7Chiefs$37.7K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
maz26Dolphins$22.2K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
HerdoniaChiefs$15.3K
BUY VWAP 48.7¢·10 fills
HomeRunHazardDolphins$13.4K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardChiefs$12.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·2 fills
HerdoniaDolphins$10.4K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.