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LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 23 minutesLiquidity: $10.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $178.5KEvent: LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs
0.1¢
Guinea Pink
100.0¢
Kawaii Kiwis
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly67Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets38Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$59.1K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 33%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 53 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Guinea Pink · $3.3K net·3 wallets·$8.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKawaii Kiwis$25.1K@ 100¢·agent2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Guinea Pink pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
+$30.9K
tracked
$59.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Guinea Pink · $3.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 53 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Guinea Pink or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-24 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Guinea Pink" if Guinea Pink win the match against Kawaii Kiwis.

•This market will resolve to "Kawaii Kiwis" if Kawaii Kiwis win the match against Guinea Pink.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 2 match between Guinea Pink and Kawaii Kiwis in the LES Promotion Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Guinea Pink" if Guinea Pink win the match against Kawaii Kiwis. This market will resolve to "Kawaii Kiwis" if Kawaii Kiwis win the match against Guinea Pink. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 24, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
agent23 linked markets · $31.7K gross
aomendushen0083 linked markets · $28.6K gross
0xf201…527e3 linked markets · $6.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Guinea Pink; negative values favor Kawaii Kiwis. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGuinea Pink · $1.2K
6hGuinea Pink · $30.9K
24hGuinea Pink · $30.9K

Guinea Pink price VWAP

Volume-weighted Guinea Pink price. Kawaii Kiwis fills are converted to the complementary Guinea Pink probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.7¢▼ below by 20.6pp
VWAP 7d20.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Guinea Pink price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$6.5K
90¢
$1.2K
85¢
$1.2K
80¢
$49
75¢
$27
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$5.3K
50¢
$334
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$43.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLKawaii Kiwis$25.1K@ 99.9¢
agent20xfbc0…abb3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.