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Spread: Packers (-5.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.3MOfficial 24h Vol: $322.9KEvent: Falcons vs. Packers
48.5¢
Packers
51.5¢
Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly7Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$139.9K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Packers · $42.4K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$69.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPackers$22.9K@ 49¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$72
6h
−$503
tracked
$139.9K

5 verified profitable wallets: Packers · $42.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-25 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Falcons and Packers, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $252.7K gross
quavoo7 linked markets · $135.8K gross
ratatatatatatatataaaa2 linked markets · $129.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 50.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 50.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 50.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 49.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Packers; negative values favor Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFalcons · $72
6hFalcons · $503
24hPackers · $58.2K

Packers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Packers price. Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Packers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h49.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d49.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Packers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.5K
45¢
← now
$136.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$13.5K@ 49.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYPackers$15.3K@ 49.8¢
n0tTODAY0x89a6…429a
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYPackers$15.3K@ 49.6¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYPackers$12.1K@ 49.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYPackers$22.9K@ 49.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Packers (-4.5)
51.5¢$1.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5
48.5¢$360.5Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
45.5¢$298.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers
30.5¢$283.0Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-7.5)
38.5¢$178.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5
44.5¢$64.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 41.5
54.5¢$63.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 40.5
58.5¢$32.2Kpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempPackers$55.7K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·4 fills
vilkaZPackers$17.7K
BUY VWAP 49.7¢·2 fills
n0tTODAYPackers$15.3K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·1 fill
HerdoniaFalcons$12.3K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.