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Spread: Packers (-4.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $1.7MOfficial 24h Vol: $1.6MEvent: Falcons vs. Packers
51.5¢
Packers
48.5¢
Falcons
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets82Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:95 trades$749.5K tracked16% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 10s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Packers · $161.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$196.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPackers$148.5K@ 50¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Falcons pressure: $52.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$52.2K
6h
+$142.6K
tracked
$749.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: Packers · $161.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Falcons or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-25 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Falcons".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Falcons". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $252.7K gross
quavoo7 linked markets · $135.8K gross
ratatatatatatatataaaa2 linked markets · $129.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Packers@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Falcons@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Packers@ 53.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 52.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Packers; negative values favor Falcons. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFalcons · $52.2K
6hPackers · $142.6K
24hFalcons · $7.4K

Packers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Packers price. Falcons fills are converted to the complementary Packers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h50.8¢▲ above by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d50.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Packers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$746.4K
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFalcons$11.1K@ 48.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYFalcons$10.8K@ 48.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYFalcons$11.2K@ 48.0¢
maksimsoldout0x4572…5e86
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFalcons$54.0K@ 48.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPackers$77.7K@ 51.8¢
ratatatatatatatataaaa0x7f8e…4487
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYPackers$32.0K@ 52.0¢
ratatatatatatatataaaa0x7f8e…4487
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYPackers$148.5K@ 50.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYPackers$10.0K@ 50.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYPackers$10.5K@ 50.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYPackers$12.5K@ 50.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYFalcons$45.3K@ 50.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYFalcons$146.9K@ 49.8¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYPackers$16.7K@ 52.0¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYFalcons$12.0K@ 49.0¢
btystu0xd886…6f88
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYPackers$29.3K@ 51.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5
48.5¢$360.5Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-5.5)
48.5¢$322.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
45.5¢$298.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers
30.5¢$283.0Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Packers (-7.5)
38.5¢$178.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5
44.5¢$64.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 41.5
54.5¢$63.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 40.5
58.5¢$32.2Kpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

raybanmanFalcons$196.9K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·3 fills
Kch-TempPackers$177.8K
BUY VWAP 50.2¢·2 fills
ratatatatatatatataaaaPackers$109.6K
BUY VWAP 51.9¢·2 fills
maz26Falcons$54.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
quavooPackers$43.8K
BUY VWAP 50.2¢·8 fills
quavooFalcons$34.6K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·26 fills
HerdoniaFalcons$17.4K
BUY VWAP 48.5¢·7 fills
vilkaZPackers$16.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
btystuFalcons$12.0K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
maksimsoldoutFalcons$11.2K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.