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Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 44.5

● quote 41s ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $257.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.0KEvent: Falcons vs. Packers
42.5¢
Over
57.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$7.6K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 156 min agoofficial metadata 14 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$20.2K@ 53¢·ratatatatatatatataaaa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$1.1K
tracked
$7.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Under · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 156 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-25 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Falcons and Packers combine to score 45 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 45, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 24 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Falcons and Packers combine to score 45 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 45, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
bands14 linked markets · $32.3K gross
AgriasOaks2 linked markets · $7.4K gross
dv-pm2 linked markets · $6.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 54.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $1.1K
24hUnder · $7.6K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h45.5¢▼ below by 3.0pp
VWAP 7d47.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.5K
45¢
$31.6K
40¢
← now
$1.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$20.2K@ 52.9¢
ratatatatatatatataaaa0x7f8e…4487
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ratatatatatatatataaaaUnder$20.2K
BUY VWAP 52.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.