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San Diego 2: Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $266.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $212.9KEvent: San Diego 2: Tristan Boyer vs Sebastian Gorzny
100.0¢
Tristan Boyer
0.1¢
Sebastian Gorzny
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection43Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:87 trades$85.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tristan Boyer · $28.2K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$40.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTristan Boyer$16.3K@ 76¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Tristan Boyer pressure: $36.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.5K
6h
+$66.0K
tracked
$85.2K

11 verified profitable wallets: Tristan Boyer · $28.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 35.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Tristan Boyer or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Sebastian Gorzny in the San Diego 2, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Sebastian Gorzny. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Gorzny' if Sebastian Gorzny advances against Tristan Boyer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tristan Boyer32m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Tristan Boyer@ 65.0¢35m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Tristan Boyer@ 79.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -17.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
Latest book event: Tristan Boyer UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $36.5K → $6.6K · 13s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tristan Boyer; negative values favor Sebastian Gorzny. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTristan Boyer · $36.5K
6hTristan Boyer · $66.0K
24hTristan Boyer · $66.0K

Tristan Boyer price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tristan Boyer price. Sebastian Gorzny fills are converted to the complementary Tristan Boyer probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h72.5¢▲ above by 27.5pp
VWAP 7d72.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tristan Boyer price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$1.3K
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$43.7K
70¢
$18.3K
65¢
$3.9K
60¢
$4.5K
55¢
$12.5K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTristan Boyer$16.3K@ 76.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYTristan Boyer$12.5K@ 59.3¢
Runemup0x75f2…ff6d
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fkcvffcjtTristan Boyer$31.0K
BUY VWAP 73.7¢·3 fills
Gambler661Tristan Boyer$20.0K
BUY VWAP 76.3¢·3 fills
RunemupTristan Boyer$12.5K
BUY VWAP 59.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.