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Michigan vs. Minnesota

Sports→American FootballSettlement: MinnesotaLiquidity: $380.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $604.6KEvent: Michigan vs. Minnesota
0.0¢
Michigan payout
100.0¢
Minnesota payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Minnesota · $96.4K net·14 wallets(2🐋)·$124.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMinnesota$25.7K@ 43¢·ethanaz

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Minnesota. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if Minnesota win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Michigan and Minnesota, scheduled for October 3 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if Minnesota win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $59.6K gross
1winstreak12 linked markets · $1.0K gross
TinaGoat2 linked markets · $253 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michigan; negative values favor Minnesota. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMinnesota · $36.4K
6hMinnesota · $99.1K
24hMinnesota · $99.1K

Michigan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michigan price. Minnesota fills are converted to the complementary Michigan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h52.4¢▼ below by 52.4pp
VWAP 7d52.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michigan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$19.4K
75¢
$1.9K
70¢
$3.9K
65¢
$15.1K
60¢
$14.2K
55¢
$69.9K
50¢
$18.3K
45¢
$64.3K
40¢
$60
35¢
$10.2K
30¢
$18.9K
25¢
$1.9K
20¢
$5.4K
15¢
$1.2K
10¢
$205
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.2K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMinnesota$22.4K@ 52.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—6 days ago
BUYMichigan$13.1K@ 47.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—6 days ago
BUYMinnesota$25.7K@ 43.0¢
ethanaz0xf28e…cab2
🐋—6 days ago
BUYMinnesota$15.7K@ 43.0¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ethanazMinnesota$57.3K
BUY VWAP 47.3¢·3 fills
mooseborzoiiMichigan$42.0K
BUY VWAP 54.2¢·6 fills
iDARKenjoyerMinnesota$21.7K
BUY VWAP 46.5¢·3 fills
mooseborzoiiMinnesota$14.3K
BUY VWAP 28.5¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.