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Spread: FC Bayern München (-3.5)

Sports→SoccerSettlement: FC Bayern MünchenLiquidity: $306.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $324.1KEvent: FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin - More Markets
100.0¢
FC Bayern München payout
0.0¢
1. FC Union Berlin payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFC Bayern München$13.5K@ 50¢·gransaaa

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome FC Bayern München. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 4 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FC Union Berlin".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for September 18 at 2:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 4 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FC Union Berlin". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY FC Bayern München@ 56.0¢25d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY FC Bayern München@ 51.0¢25d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Bayern München; negative values favor 1. FC Union Berlin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h1. FC Union Berlin · $5.1K
6hFC Bayern München · $25.2K
24hFC Bayern München · $42.9K

FC Bayern München price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Bayern München price. 1. FC Union Berlin fills are converted to the complementary FC Bayern München probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h56.4¢▲ above by 43.6pp
VWAP 7d56.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Bayern München price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.1K
90¢
$38
85¢
$0
80¢
$5.0K
75¢
$5
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$45.6K
50¢
$58.8K
45¢
$22.4K
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY1. FC Union Berlin$11.8K@ 46.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—25 days ago
BUYFC Bayern München$13.5K@ 50.0¢
gransaaa0x4d30…a42d
🐋—25 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.