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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $51.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $629.2KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
100.0¢
Alex de Minaur
0.1¢
Karen Khachanov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:294 trades$287.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $20.6K net·14 wallets·$60.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlex de Minaur$47.1K@ 100¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Karen Khachanov pressure: $84.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$84.0K
6h
+$19.8K
tracked
$287.3K

14 verified profitable wallets: Alex de Minaur · $20.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +3.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Karen Khachanov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Polyplayer142 linked markets · $7.0K gross
muller.2 linked markets · $2.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Alex de Minaur@ 96.6¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 96.6¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 96.6¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Alex de Minaur UP 4.7pp · near-book depth $3.7K → $66.5K · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Karen Khachanov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKaren Khachanov · $84.0K
6hAlex de Minaur · $19.8K
24hAlex de Minaur · $10.9K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Karen Khachanov fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h89.5¢▲ above by 10.5pp
VWAP 7d89.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$198.7K
90¢
$22.5K
85¢
$7.2K
80¢
$10.8K
75¢
$681
70¢
$0
65¢
$555
60¢
$2.9K
55¢
$20.7K
50¢
$23.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$47.1K@ 99.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—29 minutes ago
SELLAlex de Minaur$17.2K@ 99.9¢
luisterra0xf828…6129
🐋—44 minutes ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$10.6K@ 95.3¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$10.6K@ 95.3¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$10.6K@ 95.2¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Karen Khachanov (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Karen Khachanov (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampAlex de Minaur$51.6K
BUY VWAP 95.2¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesAlex de Minaur$19.9K
BUY VWAP 93.6¢·10 fills
dmoralezAlex de Minaur$16.0K
BUY VWAP 90.5¢·13 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.