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Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Karen Khachanov (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 8 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
0.0¢
Alex de Minaur
0.0¢
Karen Khachanov
0.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$123 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 207 min agoofficial metadata 104 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$120
tracked
$123

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 207 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-21 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alex de Minaur" if Alex de Minaur wins 1.5 or more total games than Karen Khachanov in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Karen Khachanov".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Alex de Minaur could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Karen Khachanov".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alex de Minaur" if Alex de Minaur wins 1.5 or more total games than Karen Khachanov in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Karen Khachanov". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Alex de Minaur could no longer have finished 1.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Karen Khachanov". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Polyplayer142 linked markets · $7.0K gross
muller.2 linked markets · $2.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Karen Khachanov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex de Minaur · $0
6hAlex de Minaur · $120
24hAlex de Minaur · $123

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Karen Khachanov fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▼ below by NaNpp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$123
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
100.0¢$637.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Karen Khachanov (+1.5)
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 21.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Match O/U 22.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
0.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.