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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $647.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $464.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
0.1¢
Astralis
100.0¢
5star
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets76Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:232 trades$179.3K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Astralis · $50.1K net·9 wallets·$66.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAstralis$9.8K@ 90¢·0x29b5…cc6c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Astralis pressure: $21.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$21.7K
6h
+$63.3K
tracked
$179.3K

9 verified profitable wallets: Astralis · $50.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +68.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 68.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Astralis or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-10 13:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against 5star.

•This market will resolve to "5star" if 5star win the match against Astralis.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between Astralis and 5star in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A, initially scheduled for September 10, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against 5star. This market will resolve to "5star" if 5star win the match against Astralis. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 10, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x29b5…cc6c4 linked markets · $61.3K gross
aaaa2983 linked markets · $43.2K gross
RN13 linked markets · $34.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY 5star@ 32.0¢10m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Astralis@ 92.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -27.0pp
Latest book event: Astralis DOWN 11.5pp · near-book depth $1.7K → $62 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Astralis; negative values favor 5star. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAstralis · $21.7K
6hAstralis · $63.3K
24hAstralis · $96.6K

Astralis price VWAP

Volume-weighted Astralis price. 5star fills are converted to the complementary Astralis probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h66.2¢▼ below by 66.2pp
VWAP 7d66.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Astralis price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$60.5K
85¢
$6.8K
80¢
$24.0K
75¢
$4.6K
70¢
$2.5K
65¢
$32.2K
60¢
$1.4K
55¢
$9.2K
50¢
$1.5K
45¢
$1.1K
40¢
$62
35¢
$255
30¢
$102
25¢
$0
20¢
$7.5K
15¢
$6.7K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$20.9K

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x29b5…cc6cAstralis$33.5K
BUY VWAP 91.3¢·8 fills
RN1Astralis$19.8K
BUY VWAP 85.1¢·8 fills
aaaa298Astralis$18.4K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·7 fills
6955star$14.2K
BUY VWAP 81.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.