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US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $419.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.9MEvent: US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
0.1¢
Frances Tiafoe
99.9¢
Ben Shelton
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets14Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 28 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:465 trades$714.5K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ben Shelton · $36.2K net·28 wallets(4🐋)·$255.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe$30.4K@ 28¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Frances Tiafoe pressure: $45.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$45.2K
6h
−$73.4K
tracked
$714.5K

28 verified profitable wallets: Ben Shelton · $36.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 13.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Frances Tiafoe or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Ben Shelton. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Frances Tiafoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $134.6K gross
0xf12f…b30f3 linked markets · $7.3K gross
Mr.Kirk3 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Ben Shelton@ 87.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -35.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Frances Tiafoe3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 31.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
Latest book event: Frances Tiafoe DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $53.3K → $18.1K · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Frances Tiafoe; negative values favor Ben Shelton. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrances Tiafoe · $45.2K
6hBen Shelton · $73.4K
24hBen Shelton · $104.3K

Frances Tiafoe price VWAP

Volume-weighted Frances Tiafoe price. Ben Shelton fills are converted to the complementary Frances Tiafoe probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h22.1¢▼ below by 22.0pp
VWAP 7d22.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Frances Tiafoe price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$36.8K
40¢
$19.3K
35¢
$15.1K
30¢
$16.5K
25¢
$366.5K
20¢
$4.0K
15¢
$45.2K
10¢
$116.2K
5¢
$8.2K
0¢
← now
$101.9K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBen Shelton$27.0K@ 99.9¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—30 minutes ago
SELLBen Shelton$11.9K@ 89.0¢
talento100xf255…dce1
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYBen Shelton$17.2K@ 87.1¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$12.2K@ 84.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$17.1K@ 29.5¢
HectorHuang0x568a…04d9
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$28.9K@ 29.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$15.5K@ 73.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$30.4K@ 28.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$22.0K@ 74.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$26.9K@ 72.0¢
user0984220x799b…2102
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$10.4K@ 29.0¢
jimbo240xe4b1…a75e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$13.8K@ 28.0¢
0xwise0x0e60…3bad
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFrances Tiafoe$20.0K@ 28.0¢0x78be…bde0🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$19.7K@ 73.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYBen Shelton$10.8K@ 72.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Frances Tiafoe$61.8K
BUY VWAP 29.0¢·3 fills
0F62Ben Shelton$41.8K
BUY VWAP 84.8¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesBen Shelton$29.7K
BUY VWAP 74.5¢·25 fills
user098422Ben Shelton$26.9K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·1 fill
kkookkooBen Shelton$22.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0x78be…bde0Frances Tiafoe$20.0K
BUY VWAP 28.0¢·1 fill
beeemwBen Shelton$19.7K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpBen Shelton$17.5K
BUY VWAP 79.6¢·10 fills
HectorHuangFrances Tiafoe$17.1K
BUY VWAP 29.5¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Ben Shelton$15.5K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.