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Game Spread: Shelton (-4.5) vs Tiafoe (+4.5)

Sports→Settlement: SheltonLiquidity: $63.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $10.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton
100.0¢
Shelton payout
0.0¢
Tiafoe payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:17 trades$15.9K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 20 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tiafoe · $2.0K net·2 wallets·$2.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTiafoe$20.0K@ 53¢·0xf559…f462

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Shelton. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-18 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins 4.5 or more total games than Frances Tiafoe in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe".

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Ben Shelton could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Shelton" if Ben Shelton wins 4.5 or more total games than Frances Tiafoe in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the match ends at a point where Ben Shelton could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Tiafoe". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05633 linked markets · $134.6K gross
0xf12f…b30f3 linked markets · $7.3K gross
Mr.Kirk3 linked markets · $4.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Shelton UP 9.5pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $1.3K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Shelton; negative values favor Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTiafoe · $3.6K
6hTiafoe · $2.9K
24hShelton · $4.3K

Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Shelton price. Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▲ above by 41.4pp
VWAP 7d51.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$91
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2
45¢
$38.6K
40¢
$23
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$5
20¢
$79
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTiafoe$20.0K@ 53.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f462Tiafoe$24.7K
BUY VWAP 52.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.