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Shanghai: Bernard Tomic vs Ilya Ivashka

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $223.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $345.1KEvent: Shanghai: Bernard Tomic vs Ilya Ivashka
40.5¢
Bernard Tomic payout
59.5¢
Ilya Ivashka payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:93 trades$129.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ilya Ivashka · $51.9K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$55.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBernard Tomic$12.1K@ 45¢·Supremeleader75

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-17 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Bernard Tomic and Ilya Ivashka in the Shanghai, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Bernard Tomic' if Bernard Tomic advances against Ilya Ivashka. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Bernard Tomic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 43m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 43m ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Bernard Tomic2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Bernard Tomic2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Bernard Tomic@ 45.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Bernard Tomic@ 46.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Ilya Ivashka DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $3.8K → $9.2K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bernard Tomic; negative values favor Ilya Ivashka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIlya Ivashka · $32.9K
6hBernard Tomic · $2.9K
24hBernard Tomic · $2.9K

Bernard Tomic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bernard Tomic price. Ilya Ivashka fills are converted to the complementary Bernard Tomic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h32.6¢▲ above by 7.9pp
VWAP 7d32.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bernard Tomic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$35.2K
40¢
← now
$32.7K
35¢
$24.0K
30¢
$156
25¢
$183
20¢
$0
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
$55
5¢
$0
0¢
$33.1K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYIlya Ivashka$11.3K@ 97.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYIlya Ivashka$11.4K@ 97.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYBernard Tomic$12.1K@ 44.8¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Bernard Tomic$36.9K
BUY VWAP 42.3¢·5 fills
FlaznorpIlya Ivashka$32.2K
BUY VWAP 79.3¢·9 fills
AntblackBernard Tomic$11.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.