PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

US Open ATP: Martin Damm vs Frances Tiafoe

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $318.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $620.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Martin Damm vs Frances Tiafoe
5.5¢
Martin Damm
94.5¢
Frances Tiafoe
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets75Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:358 trades$234.8K trackedsource coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Frances Tiafoe · $17.8K net·14 wallets·$23.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFrances Tiafoe$62.7K@ 63¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Frances Tiafoe pressure: $23.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$23.7K
6h
−$121.0K
tracked
$234.8K

14 verified profitable wallets: Frances Tiafoe · $17.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 64

Since latest liquidity absorption: +55.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 55.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Frances Tiafoe or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Damm and Frances Tiafoe in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martin Damm' if Martin Damm advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Martin Damm. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 40.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 57.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Frances Tiafoe@ 82.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h INVALIDATED -41.0pp
Latest book event: Frances Tiafoe UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $16.0K → $109.7K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Martin Damm; negative values favor Frances Tiafoe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrances Tiafoe · $23.7K
6hFrances Tiafoe · $121.0K
24hFrances Tiafoe · $122.7K

Martin Damm price VWAP

Volume-weighted Martin Damm price. Frances Tiafoe fills are converted to the complementary Martin Damm probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.5¢
VWAP 24h32.5¢▼ below by 27.0pp
VWAP 7d32.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Martin Damm price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$22.9K
55¢
$12.1K
50¢
$7.2K
45¢
$1.2K
40¢
$5.2K
35¢
$82.9K
30¢
$7.4K
25¢
$497
20¢
$13.1K
15¢
$50.4K
10¢
$16.3K
5¢
← now
$7.4K
0¢
$7.0K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrances Tiafoe$62.7K@ 62.7¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
83.5¢$806.8Kpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$676.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
54.5¢$607.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova
100.0¢$415.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien
34.5¢$376.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
100.0¢$366.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$311.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaFrances Tiafoe$62.7K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·1 fill
FlaznorpFrances Tiafoe$23.5K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·9 fills
HomeRunHazardFrances Tiafoe$17.3K
BUY VWAP 81.9¢·5 fills
0xwiseMartin Damm$14.3K
BUY VWAP 19.1¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.