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US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien

● quote 20s ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $516.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $376.1KEvent: US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien
0.1¢
Nuno Borges
99.9¢
Learner Tien
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:66 trades$183.5K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Learner Tien · $24.0K net·6 wallets(1🐋)·$28.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLearner Tien$22.7K@ 68¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$15
6h
+$27.1K
tracked
$183.5K

6 verified profitable wallets: Learner Tien · $24.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -31.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 56 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nuno Borges' if Nuno Borges advances against Learner Tien. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Nuno Borges. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nuno Borges@ 32.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Learner Tien@ 67.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Learner Tien6h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Learner Tien@ 67.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuno Borges; negative values favor Learner Tien. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNuno Borges · $15
6hNuno Borges · $27.1K
24hLearner Tien · $49.5K

Nuno Borges price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuno Borges price. Learner Tien fills are converted to the complementary Nuno Borges probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.6¢▼ below by 29.5pp
VWAP 7d29.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuno Borges price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$40.1K
30¢
$129.7K
25¢
$2.0K
20¢
$5.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$19.2K

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLearner Tien$12.5K@ 99.9¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNuno Borges$17.6K@ 35.1¢
alexdave8880xa4fd…748b
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien$22.7K@ 68.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien$20.1K@ 67.0¢
degenfren0x979f…4032
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien$10.5K@ 67.0¢0x69e9…dee1🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYLearner Tien$21.3K@ 66.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

alexdave888Nuno Borges$35.3K
BUY VWAP 34.3¢·6 fills
degenfrenLearner Tien$26.8K
BUY VWAP 66.9¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Learner Tien$22.7K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill
AV23IUaLearner Tien$21.3K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0x69e9…dee1Learner Tien$10.5K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.