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Spread: Colts (-2.5)

Sports→American FootballSettlement: ColtsLiquidity: $57.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $87.7KEvent: Colts vs. Commanders
100.0¢
Colts payout
0.0¢
Commanders payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYColts$12.9K@ 54¢·bwgringo

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Colts. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-04 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Colts" if the Colts win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Colts" if the Colts win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 20d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Colts; negative values favor Commanders. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hColts · $0
6hColts · $24.3K
24hColts · $26.9K

Colts price VWAP

Volume-weighted Colts price. Commanders fills are converted to the complementary Colts probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h58.79¢▲ above by 41.2pp
VWAP 7d58.87¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Colts price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$14.1K
55¢
$5.3K
50¢
$19.3K
45¢
$1.9K
40¢
$335
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYColts$12.9K@ 54.0¢
bwgringo0x54ce…9f80
🐋—21 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.