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Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Arthur Fils

Geopolitics→Settlement: Arthur FilsLiquidity: $374.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $632.7KEvent: Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Arthur Fils
0.0¢
Thiago Agustin Tirante payout
100.0¢
Arthur Fils payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Fils · $127.5K net·8 wallets(2🐋)·$156.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Fils$30.8K@ 77¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Arthur Fils. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-28 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Arthur Fils in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Arthur Fils. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Tantula2 linked markets · $6.8K gross
Teslaleps2 linked markets · $4.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 99.0¢4d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Arthur Fils4d ago
Outcome checks pending
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Arthur Fils@ 75.0¢4d ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.8pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Fils@ 78.0¢4d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Agustin Tirante; negative values favor Arthur Fils. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hArthur Fils · $93.6K
6hArthur Fils · $166.3K
24hArthur Fils · $167.5K

Thiago Agustin Tirante price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Agustin Tirante price. Arthur Fils fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Agustin Tirante probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h14.8¢▼ below by 14.8pp
VWAP 7d14.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thiago Agustin Tirante price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$55.5K
20¢
$80.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$18.7K
5¢
$5.0K
0¢
← now
$93.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Fils$14.2K@ 99.9¢
backback0x996a…e3cc
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$11.4K@ 97.7¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$11.4K@ 97.8¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$11.3K@ 96.9¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$11.3K@ 96.8¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$13.1K@ 90.0¢
swisstony0x204f…5e14
🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$30.8K@ 77.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—4 days ago
BUYArthur Fils$16.8K@ 75.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

swisstonyArthur Fils$69.2K
BUY VWAP 94.7¢·12 fills
0x2c33…0563Arthur Fils$47.6K
BUY VWAP 76.3¢·2 fills
backbackArthur Fils$25.0K
BUY VWAP 98.6¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardArthur Fils$11.1K
BUY VWAP 95.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.