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New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

● quote 1211 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 24 hoursLiquidity: $189.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $140.5KEvent: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection41Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$82.3K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 59%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1215 min agoofficial metadata 1205 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLUnder (NO)$33.7K@ 100¢·0x1c38…1bfa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$33.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$33.8K
6h
+$52.1K
tracked
$82.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$401 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1211 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1215 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1205 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 22:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for August 19 at 6:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $19.2K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $12.6K gross
0x161a…41032 linked markets · $2.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $8 → $0 · 30s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$33.8K
6h+$52.1K
24h+$52.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h34.3¢▼ below by 33.3pp
VWAP 7d34.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$11
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.2K
55¢
$44.9K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$33.8K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLUnder (NO)$33.7K@ 99.9¢0x1c38…1bfa🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYOver (YES)$24.1K@ 59.0¢0x263c…b2ae🐋—about 24 hours ago
BUYUnder (NO)$14.7K@ 43.5¢0x1c38…1bfa🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x263c…b2aeOver$24.1K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0x1c38…1bfaUnder$14.7K
BUY VWAP 43.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.