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Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs TheMongolz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

● quote 209 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $215.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $178.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs TheMongolz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
77.5¢
YES
22.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly61Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$101.8K tracked22% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 268 min agoofficial metadata 210 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$52.8K@ 80¢·0xf177…5f6a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
+$1.9K
tracked
$101.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 209 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 268 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 210 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Team Falcons and TheMongolz in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against TheMongolz. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 80.0¢9h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Falcons@ 80.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.9K
6h+$1.9K
24h+$101.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current77.5¢
VWAP 24h79.6¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d79.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$54.3K
75¢
← now
$51.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$52.8K@ 80.3¢0xf177…5f6a🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (YES)$45.4K@ 78.9¢0xf177…5f6a🐋—about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf177…5f6aTeam Falcons$98.2K
BUY VWAP 79.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.