Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 42 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $175.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $563.4KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:93 trades$265.6K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 56 min agoofficial metadata 36 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$40.3K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$40.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$31.3K@ 61¢·0x263c…b2ae

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$17.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$17.7K
6h
+$100.4K
tracked
$265.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$40.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +57.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 42 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 56 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 36 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 20 at 1:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 43.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 34.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +61.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 54.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +31.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $198$61 · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$17.7K
6h+$100.4K
24h+$100.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h57.9¢▲ above by 42.0pp
VWAP 7d57.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$35.8K
90¢
$114
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.7K
75¢
$9.6K
70¢
$3.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$56.9K
50¢
$91.6K
45¢
$7.3K
40¢
$11.6K
35¢
$44.9K
30¢
$404
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLToronto Blue Jays (YES)$24.8K@ 99.9¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$18.8K@ 53.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$16.9K@ 57.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$27.8K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$22.8K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$10.6K@ 41.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$31.3K@ 61.0¢0x263c…b2ae🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafToronto Blue Jays$95.8K
BUY VWAP 49.1¢·7 fills
xifutloong3Toronto Blue Jays$36.6K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·4 fills
0x263c…b2aeTampa Bay Rays$31.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
FeromontToronto Blue Jays$15.0K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.