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Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

● quote 198 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $253.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
18.5¢
YES
81.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets47Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 93%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:124 trades$748.4K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 71%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 200 min agoofficial metadata 198 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$95.6K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$202.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYG2 (YES)$131.1K@ 22¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$36.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.8K
6h
−$33.6K
tracked
$748.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$95.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 93% · priority 56

Since latest confirmed build: -20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 198 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 200 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 198 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 22:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between G2 and FURIA in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win the match against FURIA. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against G2. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $112.8K gross
0xf9d6…730a2 linked markets · $60.7K gross
CORGI83 linked markets · $44.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY G2@ 39.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -21.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY FURIA@ 62.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +19.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY FURIA@ 58.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +16.0pp
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY FURIA@ 58.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +18.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $30.5K → $7.6K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$36.8K
6h−$33.6K
24h−$35.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h34.3¢▼ below by 15.8pp
VWAP 7d34.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$95.5K
40¢
$314.1K
35¢
$15.6K
30¢
$2.5K
25¢
$3.6K
20¢
$5
15¢
← now
$16.7K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFURIA (NO)$11.3K@ 63.0¢0xf9d6…730a🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$17.9K@ 42.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFURIA (NO)$39.7K@ 58.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFURIA (NO)$15.5K@ 58.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFURIA (NO)$20.6K@ 58.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFURIA (NO)$28.6K@ 57.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$12.0K@ 44.0¢0x0d7c…b7db🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$22.6K@ 44.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$71.8K@ 44.5¢0xf177…5f6a🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYFURIA (NO)$88.4K@ 55.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYG2 (YES)$19.4K@ 42.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111FURIA$88.4K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
0xf177…5f6aG2$73.2K
BUY VWAP 44.5¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462FURIA$49.3K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·2 fills
AV23IUaFURIA$39.7K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8G2$24.2K
BUY VWAP 40.2¢·2 fills
0xf9d6…730aFURIA$19.9K
BUY VWAP 60.3¢·3 fills
111111111115G2$19.4K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563G2$17.9K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49FURIA$15.5K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
0x0d7c…b7dbG2$12.0K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.