Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote 127 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $4.0MOfficial 24h Vol: $6.9MEvent: Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:927 trades$3.5M tracked4% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 142 min agoofficial metadata 125 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $16.9K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$31.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$756.5K@ 100¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
−$1.8M
tracked
$3.5M

3 verified profitable wallets: −$16.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest confirmed build: +62.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 127 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 142 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 125 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 19:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and Team Falcons in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against Team Falcons. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 8h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe16d…5e304 linked markets · $156.0K gross
0x2929…1dd03 linked markets · $125.8K gross
0x1896…a7d62 linked markets · $93.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Nigma Galaxy@ 38.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +18.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Team Falcons@ 63.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
COUNTER FLOWBUY NO@ 60.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY Team Falcons@ 63.0¢5h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $10$665 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.6K
6h$1.8M
24h$1.3M

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h69.8¢▲ above by 30.1pp
VWAP 7d69.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.7M
90¢
$8.8K
85¢
$11.9K
80¢
$26.5K
75¢
$6.2K
70¢
$9.4K
65¢
$4.9K
60¢
$11.8K
55¢
$37.3K
50¢
$84.7K
45¢
$76.5K
40¢
$348.7K
35¢
$758.4K
30¢
$303.9K
25¢
$9.9K
20¢
$13.0K
15¢
$63.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$10.5K@ 99.9¢0x2bc6…315d🐋about 3 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$10.4K@ 99.9¢0x54fc…76eb🐋about 3 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$199.8K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$20.0K@ 99.9¢0x9166…b479🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$299.7K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$10.3K@ 99.9¢0x6373…a0b7🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$99.9K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$13.0K@ 99.9¢0x0587…c40b🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$99.9K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$25.1K@ 99.9¢0xdc3f…5e0d🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$21.6K@ 99.9¢0xe760…f2f9🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$16.9K@ 99.9¢0xa21b…e4e4🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$756.5K@ 99.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$11.8K@ 99.9¢0x2eea…1a4c🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$32.7K@ 99.9¢0xed44…4f76🐋about 4 hours ago
SELLNigma Galaxy (YES)$23.3K@ 99.9¢0x4ebc…a33d🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$13.7K@ 62.6¢0x1896…a7d6🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$16.9K@ 59.7¢0x2787…e0c4🐋about 5 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$17.2K@ 59.1¢0x2787…e0c4🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$13.5K@ 59.0¢0x3170…c6a0🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$16.4K@ 42.0¢0x1896…a7d6🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$49.0K@ 59.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.0K@ 59.0¢0x57b4…b46b🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$49.6K@ 85.0¢0x2787…e0c4🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLTeam Falcons (NO)$11.6K@ 64.0¢0x6304…e570🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$10.0K@ 65.0¢0x1e38…fd47🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$12.0K@ 37.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$37.0K@ 37.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$36.9K@ 36.9¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$66.5K@ 37.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$16.7K@ 36.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$148.0K@ 37.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$156.8K@ 36.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 8 hours ago
BUYNigma Galaxy (YES)$129.5K@ 35.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$16.3K@ 65.0¢0x6304…e570🐋about 9 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$20.6K@ 67.0¢0x9f15…bdb3🐋about 10 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$11.5K@ 69.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋about 23 hours ago
BUYTeam Falcons (NO)$12.4K@ 68.0¢
StasPanda0x7e5e…7315
🐋about 23 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekNigma Galaxy$619.9K
BUY VWAP 36.4¢·11 fills
0x2787…e0c4Team Falcons$49.6K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill
0xe16d…5e30Team Falcons$49.0K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0xc69b…2076Team Falcons$24.0K
BUY VWAP 67.6¢·12 fills
StasPandaTeam Falcons$23.9K
BUY VWAP 68.5¢·2 fills
0x1896…a7d6Nigma Galaxy$23.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills
0x9f15…bdb3Team Falcons$20.6K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
0x2929…1dd0Nigma Galaxy$19.9K
BUY VWAP 44.5¢·6 fills
0x2929…1dd0Team Falcons$19.0K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·4 fills
0x57b4…b46bTeam Falcons$18.7K
BUY VWAP 60.4¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.